How We Rate Prediction Market Platforms
Last updated: March 2026
Reviewed by Editorial Team
PredictorHQ
Our reviewers have backgrounds in financial markets, derivatives trading, and regulatory compliance. We have no sports betting background — this site is built for investors.
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Our Editorial Mission
PredictorHQ exists to serve macro investors, portfolio managers, and serious traders who want to use prediction markets as economic and policy intelligence tools — not sports bettors looking for the best sign-up bonus.
Every scoring decision in our methodology reflects this audience. A platform that offers a $50 welcome bonus but no economic indicator markets and no IRS Form 1099 will score poorly on this site. A platform that provides CFTC-regulated CPI markets, automated tax reporting, and USD deposits — but charges a 2% taker fee — will score well, because its feature set is suited to the investor use case even at a higher price point.
Coverage rule: We only review platforms with CFTC Designated Contract Market (DCM) licenses or equivalent CFTC-recognized regulatory status. Platforms without CFTC oversight are not covered, regardless of market count, trading volume, or fee competitiveness.
The 5-Criterion Scoring Framework
Each platform receives a composite score from 1.0 to 5.0, calculated as a weighted average of five dimensions. Scores are reviewed and updated on a quarterly basis or whenever a significant platform change occurs (regulatory upgrade, fee change, new market category).
Regulatory Compliance
- › Full CFTC DCM license (5.0): Platform holds an active CFTC Designated Contract Market designation — the highest regulatory standard for US event contract exchanges.
- › CFTC DCE or equivalent (4.0–4.5): Platform holds a CFTC-recognized license through acquisition or alternative designation. Slightly lower score reflects shorter regulatory track record.
- › State-only or no-action (2.0–3.0): Platform operates under state-level permissions or a historical CFTC no-action letter. Meaningful regulatory risk remains.
- › No regulation (1.0): Platforms without CFTC oversight receive a 1.0 in this dimension, capping their overall score.
- › Additional factors: Length of regulatory history, history of CFTC enforcement actions, geographic availability (all-50-states preferred), customer fund segregation practices.
Economic Markets Coverage
- › Full economic indicator suite (5.0): Platform offers CFTC-approved CPI, FOMC rate decision, GDP, and unemployment contracts. Currently Kalshi only.
- › Partial economic coverage (3.0–4.0): Platform offers some economically relevant event markets (e.g., presidential policy actions, debt ceiling) but not CFTC-approved economic data releases.
- › Politics-only (2.0–2.5): Platform covers political events with economic relevance (elections, legislative outcomes) but no direct economic data contracts.
- › Sports-only (1.0): Platform offers only sports event contracts. Score in this dimension is 1.0.
- › Rationale: Economic indicator markets are the core value proposition for macro investors. Platforms that cannot offer CPI and FOMC markets are providing a materially different product for this audience.
Fee Structure
- › Benchmark: Taker fee at 50% contract probability (the most common trading scenario). We use 50% as the benchmark because it represents the maximum fee point for formula-based structures like Kalshi's.
- › Very low (5.0): 0%–0.10% taker fee (Polymarket global).
- › Low (4.0): 0.10%–0.50% taker fee.
- › Moderate (3.0–3.5): 0.50%–2.0% taker fee (Kalshi range).
- › High (1.5–2.5): 5%–10% fee on profits (PredictIt).
- › Additional factors: Maker fee (lower is better), withdrawal fees, minimum deposit friction, and whether the fee structure penalizes liquidity providers.
Tax Reporting (1099)
- › Automated IRS Form 1099 (5.0): Platform issues Form 1099 annually with no action required from the trader. Currently: Kalshi and Robinhood.
- › Partial reporting (3.0): Platform provides some transaction records but not a complete, IRS-ready 1099.
- › Self-managed (1.5–2.0): No 1099. Trader must track all transactions and self-report on Schedule D. Currently: Polymarket, Opinion Trade.
- › Platform-level deduction, no 1099 (2.0): Platform deducts a profit fee at the platform level (PredictIt's 10%) but provides no IRS document.
- › Non-US platforms: This criterion is not penalized for platforms primarily serving non-US users.
User Experience & Trust Signals
- › App Store rating (primary): iOS App Store rating with minimum 1,000 reviews required for inclusion. We do not use Trustpilot ratings for platforms where the sample is demonstrably non-representative (see Kalshi note below).
- › Mobile app quality: Availability and functionality of native iOS/Android apps vs web-only access.
- › Customer support: Response time and quality for withdrawal, account, and trading issues.
- › Withdrawal processing: Time from withdrawal request to ACH/wire receipt.
- › Kalshi Trustpilot note: Kalshi's Trustpilot rating (2.4/5, ~90 reviews) is dominated by ACH withdrawal delay complaints and is not representative of the economic trading experience. We use Kalshi's App Store rating (4.8/5, 282,000+ ratings) as the authoritative UX signal.
What We Explicitly Do Not Score
The following factors are deliberately excluded from our scoring:
- Welcome bonuses and sign-up promotions. Prediction market platforms do not generally offer financial bonuses comparable to sportsbooks. More importantly, our investor audience does not select financial platforms on the basis of promotional offers.
- Sports market breadth and depth. The number of available NFL, NBA, or Premier League contracts is irrelevant to a macro investor's evaluation. We do not score platforms higher for sports coverage.
- Trustpilot ratings (where non-representative). For Kalshi, the Trustpilot sample (~90 reviews) is dominated by withdrawal-related complaints that are not representative of the platform's economic trading product. We flag this explicitly and use App Store data instead.
- Crypto asset trading. The presence or absence of cryptocurrency spot trading is not a prediction market feature. We do not score platforms on their crypto integration.
- Celebrity endorsements or media partnerships. Partnerships with CNN, CNBC, or the Wall Street Journal are noted as credibility signals but are not formal scoring inputs.
Score Updates and Data Verification
Platform fees, regulatory status, and availability change frequently. Our update process:
- Fee verification: Monthly. We check each platform's official fee/pricing page and update comparison tables. Each table includes a "Last verified" date.
- Regulatory status: Continuous monitoring. We update regulatory status within 5 business days of any CFTC action, license change, or publicly announced regulatory development.
- Full score review: Quarterly. We re-evaluate all five scoring dimensions for all platforms and adjust scores where factual changes warrant.
- Error corrections: Immediately upon identification. To report a factual error, email editor@predictorhq.com. We verify and correct within 48 hours.
Affiliate Relationships and Editorial Independence
Some links on this site are affiliate links. We earn a commission when readers open accounts through our links, at no cost to the reader. This is how this site generates revenue.
Our scoring methodology was finalized before we applied for any affiliate program. Platform scores are not influenced by whether an affiliate program is available. Kalshi scores 4.6/5 because of its regulatory profile, economic markets, and tax reporting — not because it has a $10 CPA. Opinion Trade scores 3.2/5 despite having no affiliate program because its regulatory status and crypto-only access are genuine limitations for our investor audience.
We publish affiliate disclosures at the top of every relevant page, above the article body. We do not bury disclosures in footers or footnotes. Our investor audience deserves to know our economic relationships in the same way they would expect a financial analyst to disclose conflicts of interest.