Prediction Markets for Macro Investors:
Compare the Top Platforms

Prediction markets crossed $64 billion in annual trading volume in 2025. They now appear on Robinhood, Webull, CNN, and CNBC. The Federal Reserve published research validating them as more accurate than Bloomberg consensus for CPI and FOMC forecasting. This is no longer a niche product.

Yet every prediction market comparison site on the internet is written for sports bettors. They rank platforms by sign-up bonuses. They use orange color schemes. They mention "promo codes." They have no concept of CFTC regulation, IRS Form 1099, or the difference between a Designated Contract Market and an offshore gambling site.

This site exists to fill that gap. We cover prediction markets the same way a Bloomberg terminal covers derivatives: with exact fee structures, regulatory status, tax implications, and use-case fit for the investors who actually need this information.

Our coverage criteria: We only review platforms with CFTC Designated Contract Market (DCM) licenses or equivalent federal regulatory status. We do not cover offshore prediction markets, platforms without financial regulation, or platforms optimized for gambling rather than financial trading.

Most prediction market comparison content treats platforms like sportsbooks — ranking by welcome bonus, market count, and mobile app ratings. For investors, those metrics are nearly irrelevant. Here is what actually matters:

1. CFTC Designation (Non-Negotiable)

A CFTC Designated Contract Market (DCM) license is the highest regulatory standard for a US prediction market. It means the platform has met federal capital requirements, maintains segregated customer funds, operates under CFTC surveillance, and is subject to audit. Platforms without DCM status — regardless of how many markets they offer or how low their fees are — carry regulatory risk that is inappropriate for investor-grade use.

As of mid-2026, CFTC DCM-licensed retail prediction market platforms include: Kalshi, Polymarket (via QCEX acquisition, July 2025), Fanatics Markets, DraftKings, FanDuel Predicts (via CME Group JV), and Underdog (via Aristotle Exchange acquisition, March 2026). PredictIt is the notable exception — it operates under CFTC no-action relief, not a DCM license (the reported January 2026 upgrade was erroneous).

2. Economic Markets (The Investor Differentiator)

Of all the platforms listed above, only Kalshi offers CFTC-approved contracts on CPI, FOMC rate decisions, GDP, and unemployment. These are the markets that make prediction platforms useful for macro investors rather than merely entertaining for sports fans.

When evaluating a platform, the first question should be: does it have economic indicator markets? If not, its utility for a macro investor is limited to political event trading — useful, but not the primary value proposition.

3. Tax Reporting (1099)

Prediction market winnings are taxable in the US. The question is who does the paperwork. Kalshi and Robinhood provide IRS Form 1099 automatically. Polymarket and Opinion Trade do not — users must track every trade, calculate gains, and self-report on Schedule D. PredictIt charges 10% on profits at the platform level but provides no 1099.

For professional investors who pay accountants or file complex returns, this is not a minor administrative difference. Platforms with 1099 reporting are meaningfully less burdensome.

4. USD Deposit (No Crypto Barrier)

Polymarket and Opinion Trade require USDC stablecoin — you need a crypto wallet, understand how to acquire USDC, and are comfortable with on-chain transactions. Kalshi, PredictIt, Fanatics, and Robinhood accept standard USD via ACH or wire transfer.

For investors whose portfolio is entirely in traditional financial instruments, the crypto requirement is not merely inconvenient — it introduces an additional asset class, wallet security considerations, and blockchain transaction risks that have nothing to do with prediction market trading.

5. Fee Structure (Read the Fine Print)

Platform fees in prediction markets are not simple percentage spreads. Kalshi uses a formula-based fee that varies with contract probability — higher near 50% (where uncertainty is maximum), lower near 0% or 100% (where outcomes are more certain). The taker fee is capped at approximately $1.74 per $100 traded, which represents a 1.74% maximum round-trip cost.

Polymarket US uses a similar probability-based formula: a variable taker fee of up to ~1.5¢ per $1 contract at a 50¢ midpoint (Θ=0.06 model, ≈ max $1.50 per 100 contracts), with maker rebates and no fees to deposit or withdraw USDC — modestly cheaper than Kalshi, but only relevant if you're comfortable with USDC and accept no 1099 reporting. PredictIt's 10% fee on profits is the most expensive structure in the space and is best avoided for active trading.

The US prediction market industry has undergone a structural transformation between 2024 and 2026. What was a two-platform market (Kalshi and PredictIt) has become a crowded field of CFTC-licensed exchanges — each targeting a different segment.

The macro investor segment is served exclusively by Kalshi. Its economic indicator markets — CPI, FOMC, GDP, unemployment — are CFTC-approved and unavailable anywhere else. The Fed research published in January 2026 transformed Kalshi from "interesting fintech product" to "empirically validated economic forecasting tool."

The global crypto-native segment is dominated by Polymarket. With 1,200+ active markets, USDC-based non-custodial trading, and partnerships with the Wall Street Journal and CNN, Polymarket has become the primary venue for global event trading. Its QCEX acquisition in July 2025 resolved the US regulatory overhang, though its EU access is partially restricted — the official restricted list covers Belgium, Germany, France, Italy, and Poland.

The sports-fan-to-investor conversion segment now has multiple entrants: DraftKings (38 states), Fanatics Markets (23 states + 4 US territories), FanDuel via CME Group JV, and Underdog (33 states via Aristotle Exchange acquisition). These platforms will generate large user bases through their sports market hooks, but their economics and cultural DNA are primarily sports-entertainment — not financial markets.

The political specialist segment still belongs to PredictIt — with a caveat. The widely reported January 2026 upgrade to full CFTC DCM + DCO status proved erroneous (that designation belongs to sister platform Aristotle Exchange); PredictIt continues under its 2014 no-action letter with its $850 per-contract cap. Its historical political data archive — available since 2014 — remains unmatched.

For most readers of this site, the relevant question is: Kalshi for economic indicator and USD-based trading, or Polymarket for crypto-native global event trading, or both? See our Kalshi vs Polymarket comparison for the full breakdown.