Latin America's prediction-market story is concentrated in Brazil — a fast sequence of a partnership, a ban, an enforcement block, and a regulated replacement — alongside court and regulator actions in Argentina and Colombia.
B3 introduced two additional event contracts tracking Brazil's broad consumer price index (IPCA) and quarterly GDP, expanding the regulated product line launched in April. They remain restricted to professional investors; B3 noted strong retail interest that the current rules exclude.
Source: BNLData
Following the Finance Ministry and CMN determination, Brazil's telecom regulator Anatel notified internet providers to block 28 named prediction-market platforms, including Polymarket, Kalshi, PredictIt, and roughly two dozen smaller Brazilian and international platforms. The action followed a technical note from the Secretariat of Prizes and Betting (SPA) treating these platforms as unregulated betting.
Source: Estado de Minas
Brazil’s stock exchange B3 began trading six event contracts — instruments priced 0–100 reflecting event probability, with a fixed payoff and no leverage — referencing the Ibovespa index, the US dollar, and Bitcoin. B3 received CVM authorization to offer them to professional investors (over R$10 million in assets or technical certification) as an exception carved out under the CMN’s new ban.
Source: Investing.com (Reuters)
Brazil’s National Monetary Council (CMN) banned the offering and trading of derivative contracts tied to sporting, online-gaming, political, electoral, social, cultural, or entertainment events, including foreign-traded derivatives offered into Brazil. The rule carves out contracts tied to legitimate economic-financial benchmarks such as price indices, interest and exchange rates, and commodities. Signed by Banco Central president Gabriel Galípolo; effective May 4, 2026.
Source: Banco Central do Brasil
A Buenos Aires criminal court (Juzgado PCyF N.º 31), acting on a case brought by a gambling-crimes prosecutor, ordered a nationwide block of Polymarket, ruling it operated as an unauthorized online betting system rather than a legitimate prediction market. ENACOM was ordered to coordinate ISP-level blocking, and Apple and Google to remove the app for Argentine users. The case gained urgency after suspicious trading on a Polymarket Argentina inflation market shortly before INDEC's official CPI release.
Source: Infobae
Kalshi announced its first strategic partnership with a financial institution outside the US, teaming with XP International (via its Clear brand) to give Brazilian investors with international accounts access to CFTC-regulated event-contract markets, initially focused on financial and economic events. The partnership predates Brazil’s April 2026 ban and platform block.
Source: Kalshi
Colombia’s gambling regulator Coljuegos requested that ISPs block access to Polymarket, ruling that its markets on the 2026 presidential election are unlicensed games of chance under Colombian law. Coljuegos president Marco Emilio Hincapié said the platform lacks the required permits; the regulator noted only 14 operators are licensed for online gaming in Colombia.
Source: Coljuegos
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