Canadian Prediction Market News — OSC, CIRO & Platform Launches

Latest developments — Canada

1. June 18, 2026 Launch

   Wealthsimple to launch 'Predict' app with Kalshi for Canadian investors

   Wealthsimple announced Wealthsimple Predict, a standalone app giving Canadian retail investors access to roughly 4,000 Kalshi event contracts restricted to CIRO-approved categories — climate, financial markets, and economic indicators — and explicitly excluding sports and elections. Access requires standard KYC and, per the model CIRO approved, an eligibility threshold, and is limited to Canadian residents.

   Source: BNN Bloomberg

2. April 2, 2026 Regulation

   CSA and CIRO remind industry that event contracts must follow existing rules

   The Canadian Securities Administrators and CIRO issued a joint notice reminding market participants that trading or facilitating event contracts that are securities or derivatives requires compliance with existing registration and recognition rules — no prediction market has been recognized as an exchange or registered as a dealer in Canada. The notice referenced a March 26, 2026 CIRO bulletin and confirmed two CIRO dealer members are currently authorized to give clients access to event contracts.

   Source: CSA / CIRO (Canada Newswire)

3. March 8, 2026 Launch

   Toronto Prediction Exchange relocates to B.C. as Vancouver Prediction Exchange

   A startup that launched in December 2025 as the Toronto Prediction Exchange announced plans to re-incorporate in British Columbia and relaunch as the Vancouver Prediction Exchange (VPX), citing more collaborative engagement with the BC Securities Commission. VPX intends to operate as market infrastructure partnering with CIRO-registered dealers and to list only economic contracts — interest rates, employment, inflation, weather — excluding sports, politics, and pop culture. As of publication it ran mock markets with virtual currency, targeting a real-money launch later in 2026.

   Source: Canadian Affairs

4. April 17, 2025 Court ruling

   OSC settles with Polymarket operators over Ontario's binary-options ban

   The Ontario Capital Markets Tribunal approved a settlement between the Ontario Securities Commission and Blockratize Inc. and Adventure One QSS Inc. — the current and former operators of Polymarket — over breaches of Ontario's binary-options ban between June 2020 and May 2023. The operators paid a $200,000 administrative penalty plus $25,000 in costs, accepted a two-year ban from Ontario's capital markets, and agreed to block Ontario residents from Polymarket. Citation: Ontario Securities Commission v Blockratize Inc., 2025 ONCMT 7.

   Source: Capital Markets Tribunal (Ontario)

5. April 2, 2025 Regulation

   Interactive Brokers becomes first CIRO dealer to offer forecast contracts

   Interactive Brokers Canada became the first CIRO-regulated investment dealer authorized to offer forecast (event) contracts to Canadian clients, through ForecastEx LLC, a CFTC-registered US marketplace. The yes/no contracts cover events such as Bank of Canada rate levels and US recession odds, priced between US$0.02 and US$0.99 and settling at $1 or $0.

   Source: Borden Ladner Gervais (BLG)

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